Don’t Shoot the Pollsters

October 9, 2014 • Blog, City

Written by: Reid Goodison

The latest poll information, depending on which you consult, paints some very different pictures of Toronto’s mayoral race. A Forum poll holds that John Tory’s support has declined by four points, from 43% to 39% since September 29. Doug Ford, conversely, has grabbed up those same four points, with his support increasing from 33% to 37%. Olivia Chow’s support was bumped by two points, from 20% to 22%. Only 2% of voters support other candidates. The sample size was 1,218 voters, while the margin of error was ±2.8%.

A Mainstreet Technologies poll gathered some very different results. According to this poll, Tory’s support has jumped by five points, from 37% to 42%, while Ford’s is down by two points, from 30% to 28%. Chow’s piece of the electoral pie shrank by two points, from 21% to 19%. The difference – 11% is undecided. The sample size was 2,379 voters; the margin of error ± 2.01%.

What do these differing reports mean to the average Toronto voter? Are we reading too deeply into some statistical nonsense? First, we must look at the differences in sample size. The poll conducted by Mainstreet Technologies used a sample almost twice as large as that used by Forum. This may account for a large part of the difference.

The margin of error is also worth taking a closer look at. The larger the margin of error, the less ‘confidence’ we have that the survey results reflect the opinion of the whole population. With this in mind, we can assume that the opinion of the entire voter population may vary somewhere around 2.5% from what is reported from surveys. With this variance, it is likely that voter support is somewhere in between the figures reported by the pollsters.

Scrutinizing poll data is hardly the ideal pastime of writers, but with a race this close, it can be illuminating. One thing we can say for certain: things are far from certain in terms of who will win the race for Toronto’s big job.

Born and raised in Brampton, ON, Reid Goodison is a Social Media Intern for the Bay St. Bull magazine. Reid graduated Dalhousie University in 2014 with a BA, majoring in Political Science and minoring in Business. Reid went on to work as a Communications Assistant for the Government of Canada. Reid has an eclectic slew of interests, including international politics, indie music, hockey, football, North American fiction, business, local art, and fashion.

Doug Ford John Tory Mayor olivia chow Polls toronto